risk analysis in capital budgeting

The recently opened Grand Hyatt Wailea Resort and Spa on Maui cost $600 million, about $800,000 per room, to build. Daily operating expenses average $135 a room if occupied and $80 a room if unoccupied (much of the labor of running a hotel is fixed). At an average room rate of $500 a night, a marginal tax rate of 40%, and a cost of capital of 11%, what year-round occupancy rate do the Japanese investors who financed the Grand Hyatt Wailea require to break even in economic terms on their invironment over its estimated 40-year life? What is the likelihood that this invesment will have a positive NPV? Assume that the $450 million expense of building the hotel can be written off straight line over a 30-year period (the other $150 million is for the land which is not depreciable) and that the PV of the hotel’s terminal value will be $200 milion.

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